+(312) 52-37-64
kis__@elcat.kg

EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

     Earthquake prediction is currently the most urgent and difficult task of all of Earth Sciences since seysmokatastrofy cause huge economic damage and lead to death. Suffice it to recall seysmokatastrofy at the end of December 2004 off the island of Sumatra, in the beginning of December 2010 on the island of Haiti and the consequences of the grandiose earthquake March 11, 2011 on the island of Honshu in Japan, which led to the deaths of tens of thousands of people.

Forecast seysmokatastrof includes a system of measures to determine the probability of occurrence of large earthquakes, their scope and the possible consequences of their actions in the area for a particular region.

From the above it follows that the forecast of earthquakes involves three main objectives:

  1. Predicting the likely location or area where the earthquake is expected.
  2. Forecast of likely magnitude (or strength) of the expected event.
  3. Determining the probable time of the expected seismic disaster.

The most challenging and important task is to predict the exact time expected seysmokatastrofy and still there are no accepted methods for solving this problem, because lesions of major earthquakes located at great depths (5-35 km) and they occupy the vast volumes (100 to 106 kilometers), which can not be simulated by conventional methods of rock destruction.

According to the prediction of the expected time of a strong earthquake forecasts are divided into the following categories:

  • long with a lead time of 5-10 years;
  • mid-term - from 1 to 5 years;
  • Short-term - from 1 month to 12 months;
  • operational - from 1 to 30 days;
  • Cache 1 to 24 hours.

All kinds of the above forecasts for the region are carried out based on the analysis of changes over time seismic regime, quantitative data of the electromagnetic field changes in the chemical composition and flow rate of groundwater and subsurface gas and animal behavior. In these studies reveal abnormalities or precursors of earthquakes, which total more than 300 items. For such an analysis in the IP NAS Data Center established bank information, including options for more than 70 thousand earthquakes of 1900-2013 years. Currently, the EC NAS performed long- and - medium-term forecasts for the individual tectonic zones on the basis of quasi-periodicity of changes of seismic conditions and manifestations of strong earthquakes, and the place of the expected seismic events highlighted by "gap" (where they have not occurred) the density parameter seismogenic discontinuities. In addition, using hydrochemical, hydrodynamic and geomagnetic data. The experience of many years of data shows that the existing equipment in Kyrgyzstan instrumental modern seismic stations, likely place of expected seysmokatastrof possible to predict with a lead time of 1-3 years with a probability of 0.60. The annual results of forecasting studies IS NAS KR howto transferred to the Department of monitoring of MES.